Don Kanare - Realtor / E-Pro - Your Incline Village Real Estate Agent - www.InsideIncline.com
Lakeshore Realty - 954 Lakeshore Blvd. - Incline Village, NV 89451 - 775-831-7000 / 775-831-6777 (fax)

INCLINE VILLAGE REAL ESTATE and CRYSTAL BAY REAL ESTATE WEEKLY UPDATE

Updated February 11, 2008 - View our "Best Buys"  or click here to see my Current Listings.  

CALL ME FOR THE BEST CUSTOMER SERVICE; YOU'LL GET RESULTS, NOT EXCUSES.

2008 Sales Statistics as of 2/4/08                  Houses      Condos     Free Standing            Total Units Sold

                 2007                                                        11                 7                   3                                        21

                 2008                                                         3                  5                   3                                        11

There are 20 properties in Incline Village in escrow as of 2/4/08.

2007 Sales Statistics as of 12/31/07              Houses      Condos     Free Standing            Total Units Sold

                 2007                                                        138                97                45                                        280

                 2006                                                        121                118              41                                        280

THE MEDIAN SALE PRICE FOR A HOME IN INCLINE VILLAGE IN 2007 IS  $1,200,000; UP 50K FROM 2006
THE MEDIAN CONDO SALE PRICE IS THE SAME AS 2006 AT $585,000

Here is the trend for the direction of prices in each of the 12 market sectors as of January 7, 2008.*

     Price Range                       Houses                        Condos                       Free Standing Condos

    $0 to $500,000                    N/A                            Flat / Down                           Plateau

    $500,000 - $1,000,000      Variable*                     Variable*                                  Up

    $1 mil to $2 mil                     Up                                Plateau                                 Plateau

    $2 mil to $5 mil                     Up                                Plateau                                    N/A

    $5 mil+                                  Up                                    N/A                                      N/A

    *Every category will have pockets of strength or weakness based on location, elevation, quality and age of construction and remodeling, deferred maintenance, square footage, lot size and other factors.  Each property should be evaluated on its own merits.  The trends are general indicators showing which sectors of the Incline Village real estate market are weaker or stronger at this point in time.  Based on current sales statistics from the Incline Village MLS this is my personal analysis of the Incline Village real estate market trends for the next 18 months.

Market Summary - February 11, 2008 - Scroll down for weekly statistics.
The Incline Village real estate market continued to cruise along at a very steady winter pace now that the roads have been cleared and agents can actually show property to their clients.  We had a total of 10 new listings, but five of these were repeats giving us a net of five new properties coming on the market.  With four properties going into escrow and surprisingly all of them under $1 million it left me scratching my head since that has been the slow end of the market lately.  

The total number of properties for sale in Incline Village and Crystal Bay held steady at 370 when you shake out the expired and withdrawn listings.  My guesstimate that the inventory will drop to around 320 properties by the time late winter rolls around could be proven wrong.  It seems that more sellers are putting their properties back on the market earlier than normal.  It will be interesting to see where the inventory finally bottoms out during this current annual cycle.

Lots of sellers were putting their properties into the rental pool in an effort to pick up some cash flow in the off season when sales are very slow.  But, with it already being the end of January and little opportunity to get a tenants this time of year I have a feeling some of these places are coming back on the MLS prematurely.  There is always a risk with this strategy, if your property does not sell quickly, then by the summertime all of the buyers are wondering what's wrong with the place if it's been sitting on the market so long.  

The median asking price for condos slid back to $550,000, and this number will likely bounce around between approximately 500K and 550K for the near term.  It's a meaningless stat in the short haul, especially since the median sale price for condos, (including the median moving average for the past six months) is holding firm at 580K.  What this tells me is that there is simply a surplus of inventory on the low end and that is the weakest part of the Incline Village Real Estate market at present.  Lots of supply but very little demand for condos under 500K.  Buyers have tremendous leverage in this sector of the market and mid-winter is the ideal time to write offers and strike your best deals.   The recent sale of #52 Mountain Shadows at only $380,000 is a perfect example.

Market Analysis - January 2008 - Scroll Down for Weekly Sales Statistics
I have been getting a fair amount of correspondence from regular readers of this column asking about my crystal ball for 2008.  Although Incline Village is an oasis of strength in a relatively weak national market, it is not completely immune to the general downturn in real estate that has occurred across most of America.  We are seeing the occasional default and foreclosure property, but very few people who work here actually own property here.   The typical buyer in Incline Village is making a discretionary purchase and they can shop around and be patient for the best deal.  So, the local economy and the local wage rates bear no direct relationship to home prices or foreclosure rates.  

I am projecting that total sales in units in 2008 will be at or slightly below the level of the past two years since this is an election year and due to the general uncertainty in the economy.  I believe that the median price for homes will remain in the range of the 2006 and 2007 level, I don't see any reason for significant upward pressure at this point in time, except for lakeview homes.    

I see high elevation homes continuing to remain flat or trending down unless they have special attributes (such as a spectacular private setting or a great Lake view).  There is very little demand for homes above 7000 feet especially if they are close to other houses and don't have what I refer to as the WOW factor.  If you purchase a home at higher elevation it should be for the enjoyment of the property and not because you are hoping to make a quick profit.

The median condo price will likely remain in the $550,000 to $585,000 range and I expect weakness at the low-end of the market to continue.  Those complexes with an excess of supply such as Mountain Shadows, Creekside East and West, Ski Way Ridge and Bitterbrush will remain flat or trend down.  

I don't think our market will take a significant hit across the board, but I do believe there will be owners in financial distress from time to time who will let their properties go into foreclosure or sell them under fair market value.  Most people who own real estate in Incline Village are affluent enough to hang onto their properties and pay the carrying costs through even a lengthy downturn.  It is those individuals who stretched to purchase a property here, or who leveraged themselves too much during the boom years, that will be in financial distress and looking for a way out.

Each of these distressed situations will have to be viewed on its own merits.  In some cases there will be good investment opportunities and I will try to be the first to spot them and write about them in this column.  Other times we will find homes like the bank owned property at 596 Lucille.  This old thrasher does not really have remodel potential and the land value is such that it would take several years to break even if you were to build new construction.  My job is to hunt around and find the best values in the Incline Village real estate market and bring them to your attention so that you don't miss out on the choicest investment opportunities.

February 11, 2008 - Incline Village Real Estate Market Info: (Scroll down to see the numbers from 2007 & 2006)

                                        HOUSES                                  CONDOS                                    FREE-STANDING 

Currently on the Market        195                                           131                                                 44

# For Sale Under $1 Mil.        44                                           124                                                  17

Lowest Priced Unit          $460,000                                   $199,900                                         $365,000 

Highest Priced Unit     $39,000,000                                 $3,995,000                                       $2,450,000 

Median For Sale Price    $1,795,000                                   $550,000                                       $1,260,935

Total New Listings    10  (This count includes all new listings whether or not they have been re-listed; 5 of the new listings this week are repeats)

New Open Escrows    4                                                    

Closed Escrows         3

Weekly sales summary of properties that went into escrow from 2/4 - 2/10/08:

Number of Units:   Condo - 3   Free -Standing Condo - 0  Single Family Residence - 1    Lot / Land - 0  MultiUnit - 0  
Price Range: Low - $349,000        High - $777,000

February 4, 2008 - Incline Village Real Estate Market Info:   

                                        HOUSES                                  CONDOS                                    FREE-STANDING 

Currently on the Market       193                                           131                                                  46

# For Sale Under $1 Mil.        44                                           124                                                  18

Lowest Priced Unit          $460,000                                   $315,000                                         $365,000 

Highest Priced Unit     $39,000,000                                 $3,995,000                                       $2,450,000 

Median For Sale Price    $1,800,000                                   $559,000                                       $1,260,935

Total New Listings    15  (This count includes all new listings whether or not they have been re-listed; 7 of the new listings this week are repeats)

New Open Escrows    5                                                    

Closed Escrows         2

Weekly sales summary of properties that went into escrow from 1/28 - 2/3/08:

Number of Units:   Condo - 3   Free -Standing Condo - 1  Single Family Residence - 1    Lot / Land - 0  MultiUnit - 0  
Price Range: Low - $380,000        High - $2,225,000

One Year Ago - February 12, 2007 - Incline Village Real Estate Market Info: 

                                        HOUSES                                  CONDOS                                    FREE-STANDING 

Currently on the Market       161                                            123                                                  45

# For Sale Under $1 Mil.       44                                             114                                                  23

Lowest Priced Unit          $549,000                                    $235,900                                         $398,000 

Highest Priced Unit     $14,950,000                                 $2,350,000                                       $2,000,000 

Median For Sale Price    $1,995,000                                    $549,000                                         $995,000

Total New Listings     18  (This count includes all new listings whether or not they have been re-listed; 6 of the new listings this week are repeats)

New Open Escrows     8                                                    

Closed Escrows          2

Weekly sales summary of properties that went into escrow from 2/5 - 2/11/07:

Number of Units:   Condo - 3   Free -Standing Condo - 2  Single Family Residence - 2    Multi-Unit - 1
Price Range: Low - $410,000        High - $1,295,000

Two Years Ago - February 13, 2006  Market Info:   

                                        HOUSES                                  CONDOS                                    FREE-STANDING 

Currently on the Market       122                                              88                                                  47

# For Sale Under $1 Mil.       24                                               74                                                  23

Lowest Priced Unit          $599,000                                    $259,000                                           $399,000 

Highest Priced Unit     $19,900,000                                  $4,445,000                                        $2,665,000 

Median For Sale Price    $1,598,000                                     $649,000                                        $1,249,000

Total New Listings   10                                              

New Open Escrows  8                                                    

Closed Escrows       5

Click here for the Archives of 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004 weekly statistics.

INSIDE INCLINE KEEPS MOVING UP IN THE SEARCH ENGINES!  
FOR THE PHRASE "INCLINE VILLAGE REAL ESTATE" THIS WEB SITE AS OF 11/21/07 HAS A 
GOOGLE SEARCH ENGINE RESULTS RANKING #12 OUT OF 493,000  
 YAHOO SEARCH ENGINE RESULTS RANKING #10 OUT OF 609,000

The Section Below is the Market Summary for 2006.

The Incline Village Real Estate Market closed 2006 on a strong note with median prices moving up ever so slightly above the level of 2005 for houses and rising over 20% for condos.  Our market continues to be an oasis of strength in a weak national market.  Inventory topped out at 242 houses, 171 condos and 56 free-standing condos for a total of 469 units for sale.  As of today we have a total of 330 properties for sale in Incline Village, and inventory has been holding steady in the 330 to 360 range for the past couple of months.  Last year at this same time there were 260 properties on the market, which is quite low by historical standards for our community.

With inventory levels up 38% since 1 year ago, median prices for houses steady and condo prices up, and unit sales down approximately 46% vs. 2005, we are clearly in a plateau phase as far as single family home prices are concerned.  Condo prices are still somewhat soft in only the Incline Manor, McCloud, Mountain Shadows and Bitterbrush complexes due to an excess of inventory.  Elsewhere in town, condo prices are firm, it's just that demand is down when compared with 2005.  We are not seeing sellers unload properties under fair market value except in rare occasions such as #83 McCloud, so buyers can't wait for a non-existent price collapse.  Prices may be off 30% in Reno, but that is a completely different market.  Prices in Incline Village are based on what affluent people think a property is worth, prices in Reno are based on local incomes, a very big difference.    

I don't think anyone needs to be concerned as to whether there is activity at the high end of our market.  Some of the recent transactions include a lakefront condo getting an accepted offer with an asking price of $3,200,000.  In the first week of December we had a house on Lakeshore Drive close escrow at $10 million all cash.  The previous week we had a 1700 sq. ft. Lakeview condo go into escrow with an asking price of $1,995,000, the week prior we had a house for $2,225,000, the previous week a home for $5,950,000.  Looks like a pretty good five-week stretch of consistent high end of sales to me.  We recently had a property close in the 8 million-dollar range and earlier this year we had a very nice lakefront home in Incline Village sell for an even $14 million.

Year To Date Sales Comparison Chart - January 1 through December 31 - 2002 to 2006

Year            #Houses Sold            Median Price        #Condos Sold        Median Price    #PUD SOLD     Median Price

2002                185                      $740,000                231                  $327,000            

2003                218                      $796,000                260                  $360,000

2004                224                      $865,750                317                  $405,000

2005                224                      $1,110,000             233                   $485,000            57                $750,000

2006                121                      $1,150,000             118                   $580,000            41                $747,500

Taking a look back we now realize that as sellers rushed their properties to market from late August through mid-October in 2005, the inventory that was building at that point in time was the start of our price plateau.  In regard to the McCloud condo complex, that now appears to have been the peak of the market for that particular complex as prices have slid from a high of $630,000 for a condo in original condition down to $530,000 last week for a similar property.  At the present time we have three condos in the McCloud complex in escrow so this is a good sign that prices are stabilizing for this particular complex and that it appears there will be no dramatic declines.  I have been warning people all summer long that they should not wait for a price collapse in the Incline Village real estate market and the proof is in the pudding as evidenced by these most recent deals going into escrow. 

Looking at the numbers above for the Incline Village real estate sales results for the first 10 1/2 months of 2006 vs. 2005 we see that sales are off just under 46% in units, but median prices for houses are very close to 2005 prices while the median price for a condo in Incline Village is up almost $100,000.  Inventory is still quite a bit higher than the inventory levels for condos and free-standing condos at the same time in 2005, but the inventory for houses has dropped significantly and is now only 5% more than a year ago.  I anticipate that inventory levels will decline between November and March as listings expire or are withdrawn and very few new properties get listed to take their place.

The buyers looking Incline Village real estate are generally affluent.  The supply and demand situation being what it is with the baby boomers retiring, prices may plateau for awhile but there is no big retreat on the horizon.  If you think you can "buy on the dip" when searching for property in Incline Village you will be sadly disappointed when there is no dip and you will wish you had bought during this plateau phase prior to the next round of price increases which I see starting in late 2007 or sometime in 2008.  

The only places I see any real softness in the lower and moderate price ranges are in the McCloud, Mountain Shadows and Bitterbrush complexes where there are a disproportionate number of properties for sale.  This has been the case all summer long in 2006 and continues to hold true as new units come on the market to replace the ones going into escrow.  As this inventory gets absorbed over the next 12 to 18 months, the bargains will slowly disappear, barring unforeseen circumstances.  If you've always wanted a place in McCloud, now is the time to strike a deal and my recommendations are #72, #100 and #40 as the units with the most motivated sellers and best upside potential now that #36, #83 and #176 have all been sold. 

To view the historical record of prices and weekly inventory changes, please visit the Archives.

With inventory levels returning to more normal levels than what we saw in early 2005, there is a lot of good selection in the Incline Village real estate market place.  Don't be afraid to bargain hard for a house or condo you want if you think it's overpriced.  On the other hand, when a reasonably priced property hits the market, make a fair offer or you'll miss out on a good opportunity.  Don't try to squeeze a seller who has the property priced right, there are too many qualified buyers out there looking for the good deals among the quality homes and condos in Incline Village. 

Click here for the Archives of 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004 weekly statistics.

If you would like more information on any property
Call Don Kanare at Lakeshore Realty at: 775-831-7000 

For a complete analysis of the local real estate market from 2002 through 2005 please click here.